Even though the major political parties will not convene to formally nominate their standard-bearer for another year, many pundits have already declared that 2024 will be a repeat match-up of the 2020 Trump-Biden contest. Despite the (four) criminal indictments of the former president, a deep bench of other political figures who’d jump at the chance to replace either of them, and a widespread belief among the public that it’s time to move on to a new generation of leadership, both figures remain significant in the upcoming election.
However, one factor that could shake up the race is the recent talk by the No Labels political group of possibly putting forth their own third-party “unity ticket” to give voters more options other than Trump or Biden in the naive hope of capturing the center of the country.
Donald Trump has always welcomed more primary candidates to challenge him, seeing as an increase in candidates vying for his former job results in diluted possibilities of a real threat to his eventual nomination given the strength of his base. While there are many qualified Democrats who could challenge Biden, the party has effectively blocked any serious primary challenges. At the general election stage, third-party candidates have historically failed to capture the White House, while simultaneously playing a significant role in tipping the scales in favor of one of the major parties. In an increasingly partisan landscape, tipping the scales ever-so-slightly can often lead to drastic changes in the eventual outcome. Bill Clinton’s success over George H.W. Bush in 1992 was due in part to the presence of independent candidate Ross Perot, who siphoned votes away from Bush. In 2000, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader factored into the defeat of Al Gore, and in 2016 Green Party candidate Jill Stein’s presence on the ballot was significant enough to snatch that election away The Middle Ground from Hillary Clinton. Given this history, and a lack of a named candidate, pundits already seem convinced that a No Labels candidate in 2024 could tip the election away from Biden and give Trump a second term.
As a political organization, the mission of No Labels is laudable in today’s hyper-partisan environment. It’s a serious-minded group with members who have kept their focus on policy solutions over politics, trying to find ways to address the huge problems this country faces in a bi- partisan manner. They even launched the Problem Solvers Caucus in Congress, a bipartisan group of legislators— evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans—who work together to craft middle-of-the-road policy solutions. The problem with their latest move is that by dipping their toe into the presidential race, they get caught in the web of partisan politics—even while calling themselves non- partisan. No Labels may refrain from picking one side over another and may even promote a bipartisan unity ticket, but history has shown that depending on who they choose for a standard-bearer, the politics of the game make it difficult not to think they are choosing sides.
Senator Joe Manchin, (D-WV) and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, are among the candidates the group is looking to potentially recruit for their bipartisan unity ticket. Manchin faces a tough re-election fight for his Senate seat in 2024 as one of the few Democrats from red states, and he has indicated that he will not make a decision about his next move until 2024. Despite his current affiliation with the Democrats, Manchin has been a repeated stumbling block for the party’s top ambitions on abortion, guns, the environment, and drug prices. He also recently indicated at a No Labels forum in New Hampshire that he is likely to run for re-election as an independent, but that he would not rule out running for the presidency as a third-party candidate. With significant support from the Republican Party, Manchin won re-election to the Senate in 2018 by a mere 1%. Given Manchin’s pending party- switch, and his opposition to many of the Democrats’ top policy priorities, it is hard to see how he would appeal to many Democrats.
What would appeal to many Democrats would be the opportunity to see more candidates in a primary for the party’s nomination. Despite some important policy, the President’s favorability ratings have remained stubbornly low. In the wake of criticism from Democrats that featuring Manchin as their standard-bearer was effectively placing their thumb on the scale in favor of Trump, No Labels recently curbed their talk of recruiting candidates and have issued what they are calling their “Insurance Policy for 2024.” They walked back their seeming endorsement of Manchin by saying they are not committed to any one candidate, but that they are “preparing for the possibility of nominating a candidate” only if certain conditions are met.
Who knew that developing policies to fix the country’s complex social and economic problems was the easy part? The difficult part is mustering the political will to get it over the finish line.
